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CRU Analyst Pegs China Aluminum Production at 14.8 Mln Tonnes

SHANGHAI, May 29, 2008 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) - China's aluminum production in 2008 is forecast at 14.8 million metric tons, down 800,000 tons from a forecast issued at the beginning of the year due to power shortages, said Paul Robinson, head of nonferrous metals group at metals consultancy CRU. Power shortages in various regions are affecting around 1.6 million tons of smelting capacity, he said.

The new forecast would still be up 16% from the country's aluminum output in 2007, according to CRU's statistics.

However, lower production leads to a smaller market surplus and an upward revision in prices for the near term, given rising production costs, Robinson said Thursday at the Shanghai Futures Exchange's annual forum.

CRU cut its total global market balance estimate for 2008 to 650,000 tons due to output disruptions.

For the medium term, CRU forecasts that China will become a net importer of 1 million tons of primary aluminum by 2010, while the Middle East is projected to have a surplus of 2.8 million tons at that time.


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