Fortress North America
The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) negotiated during President Trump's first term helped to stabilize the U.S. aluminum market and support an environment ripe for continued investment. Since 2016, the industry has invested more than $11 billion to build new and expand existing U.S. operations, including the first two new rolling mills since 1980.
However, unfairly subsidized Chinese aluminum continues to flow into the region. Chinese subsidized aluminum coil (HTS Code 7606) entering the USMCA region has increased dramatically in recent years. For example, coil imports into Mexico are up nearly 500% 2025 year-to-date compared to 2017. Subsidized coil imports into the region so far this year are equivalent to the capacity of a major U.S. rolling mill.
A renewed but strengthened USMCA should deliver on its promise to support North American manufacturing, not inadvertently incentivize subsidized Chinese metal.
Building a More Competitive North American Aluminum Market
Over the last decade+, the U.S. aluminum industry has invested more than $11 billion in new and expanded domestic operations, including the first new rolling mills built in the United States in more than four decades. The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), negotiated during President Trump's first term, played an important role in these investments. But the deal also created challenges for parts of the value chain as metal from China and Russia entered the United States due to a lack of tariff alignment in the region.
Successful trade enforcement at the U.S. border created perverse incentives for non-market actors to slip unfairly traded aluminum through the backdoor.
A renegotiated agreement offers a unique opportunity to address these issues as China and other non-market economy countries continue to distort global trade through state-backed overcapacity, subsidies and unfair trade practices that threaten aluminum producers across North America.
That challenge creates an opportunity. As policymakers review USMCA, the United States, Canada and Mexico can strengthen the agreement and position North America not simply as a free trade zone, but as a strategic aluminum production bloc capable of competing against unfairly traded imports, supporting manufacturing growth and creating long-term supply chain resilience.
An updated USMCA must have “unified tariff borders with Mexico and Canada.” – Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Jeffrey Goettman
Today's Market Reality
The United States is a net importer of aluminum and relies on stable Canadian primary aluminum supply and robust scrap trade with both Canada and Mexico. Preserving market access within North America remains essential to maintaining competitive regional supply chains. At the same time, those supply chains must be protected from unfairly traded aluminum entering the region from outside North America.
The upcoming USMCA review presents an opportunity not simply to preserve the status quo, but to strengthen the agreement so it delivers for manufacturers and workers in the United States, Canada and Mexico -- not non-market competitors.
A Unified North American Aluminum Trade Framework
The Aluminum Association is calling for six concrete steps as part of a renegotiated USMCA in order for Mexico and Canada to continue enjoying preferential tariff treatment:
North America should present a unified front against unfairly traded aluminum.
The United States, Canada and Mexico should align external tariff policies affecting aluminum imports and close loopholes that allow non-market economy aluminum to enter the region under more favorable treatment. This must include expanding Section 232-style tariffs throughout the region to cover additional derivative aluminum products. Currently, unfairly traded metal embedded in aluminum-intensive products is entering the United States through North American trading partner countries.
Harmonized tariff policies, strong enforcement and restrictions on duty drawback programs that undermine trade measures can help ensure aluminum imports receive consistent treatment throughout North America.
A stronger North American aluminum market begins with better transparency.
Canada joined the United States to more closely align tariffs and in building robust trade monitoring systems to track aluminum trade flows following the USMCA. This is important progress, but more sustained coordination and enforcement are needed to close remaining gaps and strengthen North America’s position as a globally competitive aluminum manufacturing base.
Recent action by the Mexican government (following long-term association advocacy) will establish the first-ever aluminum import monitoring system in that country. The system aims to improve oversight of aluminum flows entering the region. This program represents an important step toward greater supply chain transparency and traceability. Successful implementation, adequate resourcing and strong enforcement will be critical to ensuring the program achieves its intended objectives.
USMCA's rules of origin should be updated to better reflect the realities of today's aluminum supply chain.
Products containing aluminum from China or other non-market economy countries should not qualify for preferential USMCA treatment. Stronger regional value content requirements across aluminum-intensive products would help ensure the benefits of USMCA accrue to producers, manufacturers and workers in the United States, Canada and Mexico.
Aluminum scrap is a critical manufacturing input and an increasingly important feedstock for new investments in rolling, recycling and casting capacity throughout North America. Fully 90% of America’s needed aluminum imports come from Mexico and Canada.
USMCA should continue supporting the free flow of aluminum scrap within the region while addressing the loss of valuable North American scrap to non-market economy countries.
A stronger USMCA should support open and competitive markets throughout the region.
When trade rules are consistently applied, import transparency is improved and unfairly traded material is prevented from entering North American supply chains, manufacturers in the United States, Canada and Mexico can compete on a level playing field.
Strengthening regional enforcement and coordination, including derivative product tariff alignment, will help ensure that North American markets remain open to all regional producers. This will reduce opportunities for non-market competitors to exploit regulatory gaps and shut out regional trade.
Trade rules are only effective when they are enforced.
The United States, Canada and Mexico should strengthen penalties for tariff evasion, falsified trade records and fraudulent country-of-origin claims. Enhanced enforcement tools, stronger importer accountability and coordinated regional oversight will help ensure that USMCA achieves its objectives and that manufacturers operating fairly are not disadvantaged by those seeking to circumvent the rules.
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